Smoke & Mirrors

At the end of January the Department for Transport produced its Rolling Stock Plan for 2009-2014, an incredible work of obfuscation and confusion. It appears to promise that by 2014 TOC's in England & Wales will receive an additional 1,300 vehicles. However, it is not at all clear that this will be the case as rather confusingly the notes to the table produced on the DfT web site appears to indicate that some of these vehicles will be cascaded from other operators. In fact it is just about impossible to unpick what are new vehicles and those that are cascaded.

It would appear from the press coverage that I have read that the 1,300 vehicles, while indicative, is a net gain figure. In other words, it does not include vehicles that would be cascaded between operators. However, if this is true, why are the notes attaching to the Rolling Stock Plan at pains to point out that some of the vehicles shown will come from cascades between operators? It seems a deliberate attempt at generating a confused picture and it is hard not to feel cynical towards a government department, which seems to have such a ill-formed attitude and understanding of rail.

Another source of confusion I found contained in the DfT's press release about government funding for the Birmingham New Street development. In the notes it mentions that Arriva-operated Cross Country Trains will receive an additional 40 vehicles in the next year, however according to the Rolling Stock Plan, Cross Country will receive just 6 extra DMU vehicles.

Other anomalies abound in the Rolling Stock Plan. For example, it is suggested that East Midlands Trains will receive just 3 vehicles in the period to 2009-2014! The table does not show existing franchise agreements for new vehicles and does not include vehicles for the Intercity Express Programme, Crossrail or Thameslink. In addition it shows 106 new vehicles for Intercity West Coast, which indicates that the additional 2 cars per Pendolino set will not be delivered until after the end of the current Virgin franchise. In fact the requirement should be 104 vehicles as the Pendo involved in the Lambrigg crash has subsequently been written off.

It all adds up to a rather muddled and confused picture so typical of the DfT's pronouncements on rail, where its policy seems to be an exercise in confusion. Maybe by 2014 we'll actually have a clear idea of exactly how many 'new' vehicles there will be.